segunda-feira, 7 de abril de 2014

How to Keep the Lights on after a Superstorm

 

A planned micro grid in a New Jersey city could be a model for making local communities more resilient to extreme weather

Apr 3, 2014 |By Caren Chesler

SUPERSTORM SANDY: When the hurricane roared ashore, Hoboken found itself flooded for several weeks--and lost power.

For five days after Hurricane Sandy hit on October 29, 2012, large swathes of Hoboken, N.J., remained underwater and in darkness. The small city covering five square kilometers hosts three substations for the regional electric grid, all of which were knocked out of service by flooding. Some residents had no electricity for as long as 15 days after the storm.
As Mayor Dawn Zimmer walked around her municipality
surveying the damage, she vowed to come up with a backup plan to keep the lights on in a catastrophe. When federal government officials flooded in to tour the damage, Zimmer asked them to help her find a way to have at least a minimal amount of power remain on during storms, no matter what. As a result, she is now working with Sandia National Laboratories, local utility Public Service Electric & Gas Co., the Board of Public Utilities and renewable energy consultant Greener by Design to come up with a plan to put Hoboken, or at least a part of it, on its own power grid. Hoboken needs to be self-sustaining during a storm, Zimmer says, because whether it's stubbornness or lack of resources, people simply don't evacuate. "I thought if we had a safer, better system of sheltering in place, people could stay in their homes through the storm," Zimmer explains.
Based on work Sandia has done for military bases, the planned microgrid will be one of the largest and most complex in the country and will serve as a possible model for other cities. "Military bases have to have power regardless of what happens around them," says Robert Hwang, director of Sandia's Transportation Energy Center, which is the lead department for this project. "We developed this design technology to meet that need."
Inside the micro grid
Any small-scale localized area with its own power generation and users of electricity qualifies as a micro grid (think: energy island). Such a micro grid is a small-scale version of the
regular electric grid and can run independently or in conjunction with it. It’s considered more reliable than a conventional grid because its wires are often underground, it has multiple sources of power generation and its power is generated and distributed locally. A conventional electric grid, by contrast, uses overhead wires and has fewer, but bigger sources of power generation. If one goes out, large portions of the grid lose power. For a micro grid, think of Christmas lights: it used to be that if one bulb went out, the whole string went out. But manufacturers started to localize or segment the way the lights were wired, so that if one bulb went out, only that section of the string went out. The rest of the string would remain on. A micro grid can also achieve specific goals, like having a diverse array of energy sources and lowering electricity costs because the grid can produce its own power during peak hours on the regular grid, when electricity costs are usually high.
The micro grid itself will only be activated during times of peak usage on PSE&G's grid—because it will likely be cheaper for Hoboken to make its own power at those times—or when PSE&G's grid is down, either due to repairs or mishaps, such as extreme weather events. An operator must manually turn on or engage the grid, although it can be done remotely, even from a computer. Once the grid is on, it is designed to be able to run continuously for seven days.
The blueprint for the new micro grid spells out the sources of electricity generation, where the wires should go and lists about 100 potential buildings to be wired together. The list includes city hall, buildings that house emergency services like police and fire, hospitals, senior housing facilities, the Stevens Institute of Technology, tall buildings with elevators, a grocery store or two, and possibly some hotels and restaurants.
A draft report suggests powering this micro grid with
solar panels, wind turbines and fuel cells—which are like large batteries that convert hydrogen and oxygen into water, and in the process produce electricity. The grid would also use generators fired by fossil fuels, such as combustion engines. Hoboken may also recover some of the heat thrown off by those generators and put it to other uses, such as heating buildings or driving a steam turbine to produce yet more electricity—an approach known as combined heat and power, or CHP.
Profit center, too
Hoboken will likely run its CHP generators and solar panels most often during peak prices. "We will run it on days when electricity is more expensive to buy than it is to produce," says Adam Zellner, founder of Greener by Design, a renewable-energy consultancy, who was a member of former Gov. Jon Corzine's energy policy team. "If we can make energy for seven cents and PSE&G's grid charges nine, we should turn on our grid."
Then there are the micro grids within the micro grid, known as "clusters," each connected to several types of electricity generators. These sources, say solar panels and a natural gas generator, are paired together to ensure there will always be electricity. So, when the sun goes down or the wind stops blowing, another power source kicks in. The locations of each cluster will be determined by the power needs in that section of the grid. A cluster containing cogeneration, for instance, might be situated near an apartment building, where the inhabitants use energy day and night, whereas a cluster containing solar panels might be located near an office building, which uses electricity mostly from 9 A.M to 5 P.M.
Each local power source can switch from one grid to the other because it essentially has two sets of wires: one that connects it to PS&G's grid and one that connects it to the micro grid. A power source will never be connected to both grids simultaneously. In fact, the power source must first be disconnected from one grid before it can be connected to the other.
That's no accident. One of PS&G's concerns all along has been power coming into their lines unexpectedly. What if they had a power outage and shut down a section of their grid in order to work on it? If the two grids were connected, power from the micro grid could flow back into PSE&G's lines and blow a transformer—or worse, electrocute a worker. "Their lines will not be attached to our lines," says Ananda Kanapathy, director of electric and gas asset strategy at PSE&G. "Their grid will be separated and isolated from us."
A power outage might look something like a model train set that loses power, where all of the trains and lights go off, for about 45 seconds, and then go back on. In that delay, any electricity that was being generated and flowing into PSE&G's grid must be grounded. Those power sources are then disconnected from the regular grid and switched over the micro grid.
The goal is to be more like Princeton University.
During Hurricane Sandy, as residents in the streets and towns surrounding the college sat in the dark, college kids continued to read, watch television and play on their computers because the school has its own electrical grid.
In normal times the university gets most of its electricity from PSE&G. But when the storm knocked out the power, the university switched over to "island mode" and ran off of its own internal grid, built in 1996, which is powered by a cogeneration plant. By having its own way of generating power, the university was able to produce its own electricity when the regular grid was down, not unlike a house with its own generator. These generators use fuel to rotate turbines that make electricity, and because the exhaust from the turbines reach 480 degrees Celsius, the heat is also captured and put to use. Princeton's CHP plant produces 12 to 14 megawatts of electricity—less than the 12 to 30 megawatts of electricity the college usually uses, but the storm hit during fall break, when only 1,000 of the university's 5,000 students were there. Usage with the reduced population was running at about 16 megawatts, but by turning off some heaters and air conditioners around campus, there was enough power to last the five days electricity in the surrounding area was out, says Tom Nyquist, executive director of the Engineering and Campus Energy Facilities Department at Princeton.
What will it cost?
The Hoboken project is among those recommended by a Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Strategy task force that the Obama administration formed in December 2012. Congress appropriated $50 billion for disaster relief, to help rebuild the region in the wake of the storm. The task force was created to establish guidelines for investing those funds. The goal is to develop pilot projects aimed at making the energy infrastructure more resilient. To that end, the U.S. Department of Energy and national laboratories like Sandia have been providing technical assistance to states that suffered hurricane damage. The design for Hoboken's micro grid is part of that effort.
The goal, according to the report, is not just to address Hurricane Sandy damage but to mitigate damage caused by climate change. But with all the bells, whistles and security measures that are expected to be part of Hoboken's project, some question how much it will ultimately cost. The project currently has an estimated price tag of $30 million to $50 million, according to Greener by Design’s Zellner, although it could go higher, depending on exactly who participates in the grid and how much wiring is required to connect everyone. But the question that should be asked, Zellner adds, is what it would cost Hoboken to have another 15-day
blackout? "They can't afford not to act," he says.

 

A Happy Life May not be a Meaningful Life - Scientific American - Mozilla Firefox 2014-02-19 18.42.38

In Fracking Fight, How to Measure Health Threats?

 

The more than 6,000 active gas wells in Pennsylvania generate scores of complaints each week, many about terrible odors and contaminated water

natural gas drilling rig in PA

Marcellus shale gas-drilling site along PA Route 87, Lycoming County. Credit: Nicholas A. Tonelli via Flickr

There are more than 6,000 active gas wells in Pennsylvania. And every week, those drilling sites generate scores of complaints from the state’s residents, including many about terrible odors and contaminated water.

How the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection handles those complaints has worsened the already raw and angry divide between fearful residents and the state regulators charged with overseeing the burgeoning gas drilling industry.

For instance, the agency’s own manual for dealing with complaints is explicit about what to do if someone reports concerns about a noxious odor, but is not at that very moment experiencing the smell: “DO NOT REGISTER THE COMPLAINT.”

When a resident does report a real-time alarm about the air quality in or around their home, the agency typically has two weeks to conduct an investigation. If no odor is detected when investigators arrive on the scene, the case is closed.

“The time that it takes them to respond is something people are concerned about,” said Matt Walker, a community outreach director for the Clean Air Council in Pennsylvania, an environmental advocacy organization. Waiting a few days to two weeks to respond to odor complaints, he said, is “way too long.”

George Jugovic, who served as a regional director for the DEP until 2012, agrees. Jugovic said the department is only set up to respond quickly to potential emergencies.

“It’s a problem,” said Jugovic, who since leaving the department has served as counsel to a local environmental group.

Rebecca Roter said she experienced the problem first hand last year. On a cool April evening in 2013, Roter said she was cooking dinner in her Susquehanna County home when a “nauseating” smell overwhelmed her. Roter said she walked out to her front porch, pulled her gray hoodie over her nose and mouth and quickly drove her car to the site of a nearby gas well being fracked.

Roter said she saw plumes of dust rising into the air. That evening, Roter said she wrote to the DEP, recounting the events of the day and requesting that they send out a field agent to follow up. Four days later, the agency sent out an investigator.

The DEP later notified Roter in writing that the investigator had found “nothing out of line” and that it had concluded that “the operation appeared to be conducted as per standard procedure.”

Roter said she is convinced the investigator simply didn’t detect any smell when he responded 96 hours after her report. The odor has recurred repeatedly in the months since, she said, and she has no idea how alarmed to be.

The concerns of residents like Roter are not likely to be eased by a study published today in Reviews on Environmental Health, a peer reviewed journal. The study, researchers say, confirms what they have long suspected about natural gas operations — that emission levels from these sites spike drastically over short periods of time, making it hard to assess the true threat to people’s health.

Researchers at the Southwest Pennsylvania Environmental Health Project collected real-time readings of particulate matter — soot, dust and chemicals — in 14 homes in Washington County, a heavily drilled part of the state. They found repeated episodes during which measures of contaminated dust rose sharply, to dangerous levels in the course of a day.

David Brown, the lead researcher on the study, said that a person in such circumstances could get what amounted to a full day’s exposure in half an hour.

The American Petroleum Institute did not respond to repeated requests for comment. The Pennsylvania Independent Oil and Gas Association declined to comment on the Environmental Health Project’s study but said that the oil and gas industry is “heavily regulated” and that the association’s member companies “strive to comply with numerous federal and state air quality related rules, regulations, and reporting requirements.”

Still, residents like Roter, who has over 20 gas wells within a mile of her house, fear that the exposure to contaminants could quickly add up. It’s one of the reasons, she says, she is frustrated by the DEP’s response to her complaints.

DEP spokeswoman Lisa Kasianowitz defended the department’s performance on complaint investigations.

“DEP has been prompt and responsive in regards to air quality concerns surrounding the natural gas industry,” she said in response to questions from ProPublica. She added that the department had recently toughened oversight of the industry, and that oil and gas companies were no longer exempt from complying with basic permitting requirements.

Kasianowitz provided ProPublica with some recent statistics on complaints and inspections, and she promised to make department’s officials available to be interviewed. Later, after ProPublica filed a freedom of information request seeking more detailed information on dozens of the department’s investigations, Kasianowitz said the officials could not be interviewed.

The information provided by the DEP shows that between 2011 and 2014, the department received over 2,000 complaints about oil and natural gas operations. Water quality issues featured prominently in the list of complaints. The DEP also registered 110 of the complaints as odor issues.

In Southwestern Pennsylvania, a corner of the state that has seen extensive fracking operations, there were 617 registered complaints over those years, including 47 involving troubling odors.

In one-third of the cases that were investigated, inspectors reported that no odors were detected at the time of inspection and closed the case. Inspectors typically visited residents within a week of filing the complaint.

In only a handful of cases did the inspectors detect odors during their visit and follow up by citing the company involved. The citations, known as a Notice of Violation, required the operators to correct the problem, but did not carry fines.

ProPublica’s request for more details on the investigations and violations is still pending.

John Quigley, a former director of the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, said the need for greater transparency in the oversight of the fracking industry was real and urgent.

In 2007, Pennsylvania produced close to 10,000 million cubic feet of gas from the Marcellus formation. By 2012, that number had grown to over two trillion cubic feet. With this dramatic increase in gas production, concerns about environmental pollution and public health have risen sharply and the DEP has become a target for anger among worried residents.

Activists and environmental groups have accused the agency of being overly deferential to the gas industry, and defensive and slow moving in its dealings with the public.

“It was very top down, very secretive and paranoid about who the enemies were,” said Jugovic, the former agency official, who left the department when Corbett succeeded Rendell as governor. “The control on information was significant.”

Earlier this month, Chris Abruzzo, the current head of the DEP, publicly acknowledged criticism about the agency’s transparency issues and said he wanted to change public perception of the agency.

Critics of the state’s dealings with the gas industry have long highlighted the history of financial ties between the industry and state officials, including former Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell and current Republican Gov. Tom Corbett.

Last year the Public Accountability Initiative, a nonprofit watchdog organization focused on the intersection of government and business, released a report on what it called Pennsylvania’s revolving door between the government and the gas industry. It concluded that at least 20 DEP employees have also held energy industry jobs either before or after their agency jobs.

Gov. Corbett’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

ProPublica obtained an internal complaints manual used by the DEP to maintain a consistent approach in dealing with environmental complaints. The manual directs staff to assign routine air quality issues a priority level of 2. The category comprises complaints that are “serious but not likely to escalate within 7-10 days but pose an existing or potential adverse impact on the environment or public health.”

According to the internal complaint manual, DEP complaint coordinators, who answer calls on regional complaint hotlines, are responsible for assigning response priority levels.

In 2012, the Clean Air Council, which has been tracking the DEP’s enforcement of regulations related to air quality, sent a letter to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, complaining about the alleged shortcomings of Pennsylvania’s oversight.

The council said it had been contacted by many residents who asserted that complaints they had filed with the DEP had never been fully investigated. In some cases, the council claimed, residents had said the DEP’s complaint hotline had not been working when they called.

“People have been told things like ‘stop calling’ and ‘if you’re air is bad, then maybe you shouldn’t go outside,’” said Walker, the council’s community outreach director.

Kasianowitz did not respond to ProPublica’s questions about allegations of inadequate or unprofessional behavior by agency staff.

Gas drilling operations include several processes that release toxic chemicals into the air. The type and level of chemicals released varies from hour to hour depending on the type of activity taking place on the well pad.

Despite this, researchers and regulators seeking to assess the health threat of fracking operations have typically used measurement devices that capture air emissions over longer periods of time, often 24 hours.

These levels are then, in many cases, compared to the EPA’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards, which were created over 40 years ago at a time when large, 24-hour-a-day sources of pollution such as coal fire plants and steel mills were dominant.

“You can’t use 24-hour standards if the health effect occurs within a few minutes,” said Brown, the lead author of the study released Friday.

The question of whether episodic bursts of contaminated air from fracking could pose an unappreciated but real health menace was first explored in West Virginia in 2010.

West Virginia’s Department of Environmental Protection asked Michael McCawley, then a professor at West Virginia University’s Health Sciences Center, to study air emissions from fracking operations in the state. McCawley found the contaminants he detected at fracking sites fluctuated over a wide range.

Those findings mirror those in the Pennsylvania study published on Tuesday.

Research has shown that fracking operations can release an array of toxic chemicals — some carcinogenic, others capable, at significant enough levels, of causing serious neurological and respiratory damage. The worry, Brown says, is that these chemicals are attached to the microscopic dust particles that he detected and can reach the bloodstream after being inhaled.

McCawley and Brown say that the wide fluctuations that they’re picking up on are also attributable to operators not using the best available technology to limit possibly harmful emissions.

State and federal regulations, for instance, do not require operators to use equipment that would capture all emissions during drilling. Often, gases are vented or flared into the air. The regulations also don’t consider activities, like diesel truck traffic, that degrade air quality at the fracking site.

“The law requires best technology,” said McCawley, and the data, he says, is telling us that the gas drilling industry is “not working according to the strict definition of the law.”

 

A Happy Life May not be a Meaningful Life - Scientific American - Mozilla Firefox 2014-02-19 18.42.38

How Is the Internet Changing the Way We Work?

 

By Thomas W. Malone

 

Highlights

  • In other words, one of the most important drivers of the revolution is this: for the first time in history, new technologies allow us to have the economic benefits of large organizations—like economies of scale and knowledge—without giving up the human benefits of small ones—like freedom, creativity, motivation, and flexibility.
  • With new technologies like e-mail, instant messaging, and the Internet, it’s now becoming economically feasible—for the first time in human history—to give huge numbers of people the information they need to make more choices for themselves.
  • But in our increasingly knowledge-based and innovation-driven economy, the critical factors in business success are often precisely the same as the benefits of decentralized decision making: motivation, creativity, flexibility, and innovation.

Imagine you are a shopkeeper, living somewhere in Spain, in 1795. You no longer believe, as did the ancient Egyptians, that your king, Carlos IV, is literally a god, living on earth. But you still believe that he has a divine right to rule over you. You can’t imagine any country being governed well without a king who is responsible for the protection and control of his subjects.

You have heard of the strange rebellion in North America where the British colonists claimed that they could govern themselves without any king at all. You’ve also heard about the recent violent bloodshed in France where a group of so-called revolutionaries killed their king, replaced the government, and destroyed, almost overnight, so many good things. But these experiments seem to you like profound mistakes, bound to fail.

It just doesn’t make sense to say—as these democratic revolutionaries do—that people could ever really govern themselves. That’s a contradiction in terms, like saying that children could raise themselves or farm animals could run a farm. People can try it, you think, but it certainly couldn’t work as well as a wise and just king.

Well, of course, today we know what happened to those strange democratic experiments. They worked. Really well. Over the past two hundred years those democratic ideas have triumphed in Europe, America, and many other parts of the world. While democratic governments are not everywhere in the world today, their economic, political, and military successes have far surpassed what almost anyone would have predicted in the late 1700s. And, perhaps more importantly, our whole way of thinking about many things—the role of government, the rights of people, the importance of public opinion—has profoundly changed, even in countries that don’t themselves have democratic governments.

Now, we are in the early stages of another revolution—a revolution in business—that may ultimately be as profound as the democratic revolution in government. Like the democratic revolution, the revolution in business will lead to a transformation in our thinking about control: Where does power come from? Who should be in control? Who is responsible?

And, once again, the result of this revolution will be a world where people have more freedom. A world in which power and control in business are spread more widely than our industrial age ancestors would have ever thought possible. A world in which more and more people are at the center of their own organizations.

In this new world of business, lots of highly connected individuals will each make their own decisions using information from many other places. In fact, this revolution is now possible because new information technologies make it feasible—on a scale never before possible in human history—for vastly more people to have the information they need to make well-informed choices.

But the real impetus for this revolution will not come from these new technologies. It will come from our own human desires—our desires for economic efficiency and flexibility, certainly, but also our desires for non-economic values like personal satisfaction and fulfillment.

In other words, one of the most important drivers of the revolution is this: for the first time in history, new technologies allow us to have the economic benefits of large organizations—like economies of scale and knowledge—without giving up the human benefits of small ones—like freedom, creativity, motivation, and flexibility.

This revolution has already begun. We saw its harbingers in the final decades of the twentieth century in talk about empowering workers, outsourcing almost everything, creating networked or virtual corporations. We saw it in the premature—but partly correct—enthusiasm for new ways of doing business in the dot.combubble and in the slogan that “the Internet changes everything.” We see it all around us today in the increasing amount of choice many people have in how they do their work.

But, like the loyal subjects of King Carlos IV in 1795, most of us don’t yet begin to understand how far-reaching these changes may eventually be. We still assume, without even really thinking about it, that someone always needs to be responsible and accountable in business. We assume that the managers of well-run companies should always be in control of what’s happening. We assume that power should always come from the top of an organization and be delegated down.

But the underlying technological and economic forces all around us today are making these beliefs less useful. New ways of organizing work are now becoming possible. Management is changing. And that gives all of us more choices in how we shape the world that is being created.

What Will These New Ways of Organizing Work Look Like?

There’s a technical term for the kind of organization this revolution will make more common. The word is decentralized. But most people have a very limited view of what this word means. If you’re like many people in business today, when you hear the word decentralized, you assume that it means delegating more power to lower-level managers inside traditional organizations. It might mean, for instance, letting divisional vice-presidents make product strategy decisions that used to be made by the CEO.

But this limited kind of decentralization barely scratches the surface of what’s possible. Let’s define decentralization as the participation of people in making the decisions that matter to them. In this sense, decentralization means roughly the same thing as freedom. Decentralized organizations are those where more people have more freedom. And from this point of view, as you can see in figure 1, there’s a much wider range of possibilities for decentralization.

The decentralization continuum.
Organizations can be placed on a continuum based how much people participate in making decisions that matter to them.

At the far left of the continuum are highly centralized organizations. If all important decisions are made by high-level centralized decision-makers (as in traditional military organizations, for instance), then the organization is highly centralized. The rest of the continuum shows three important kinds of decision-making structures where people have more freedom: loose hierarchies, democracies, and markets. As you progress along the continuum, from loose hierarchies to democracies to markets, the amount of freedom people have in decision-making increases.

For example, some companies today already have loose hierarchies where they delegate huge amounts of decision-making authority to very low levels in their organization. Many management consulting firms, for instance, let the individual partners and consultants on a project make almost all operational decisions about the project. And AES Corp., one of the world’s largest electric power producers, has let very low-level workers make critical multimillion-dollar decisions about things like acquiring new subsidiaries. In an even more extreme example, one of the most important computer operating systems in the world today—Linux—was written by a loosely coordinated hierarchy of thousands of volunteer computer programmers all over the world.

When most people think about decentralization, they stop at this point—delegating lots of decisions to lower levels in hierarchies. But what if power didn’t getdelegated to lower levels? What if, instead, it originated there? How much energy and creativity might it be possible to unlock if everyone in an organization felt they were in control?

The right half of the continuum shows the possibilities for what this more extreme kind of freedom can look like in business. For example, some businesses already act like miniature democracies where decisions are made by voting. Many good managers today, for instance, informally poll their employees about key decisions, and some companies do more formal polling of employees for many purposes. In a few cases, like the cooperative Mondragon Corporation in Spain, the workers own the company and, therefore, can elect the equivalent of a board of directors and vote on other key issues. What if companies begin to take this notion of democratic decision-making even more seriously? What if, for instance, professional partnerships and other worker-owned businesses let workers elect (and fire) their own managers at every level, not just at the top? And what if these employee-owners could vote on any other key questions on which they wanted to express opinions?

The most extreme kind of business freedom occurs in markets because, in markets, no one is bound by a decision to which he or she doesn’t agree. In a pure market, for instance, no one on top delegates decisions about what to buy and sell to the different players in the market. Instead, all the individual buyers and sellers make their own mutual agreements, subject only to their own financial constraints, their abilities, and the overall rules of the market.

For instance, companies can use this form of organization by outsourcing things they used to do inside. Many companies today are already outsourcing all kinds of things, from manufacturing, to sales, to human resource management. In some cases, large companies may not even need to exist in the first place. Flexible webs of small companies or even temporary combinations of electronically connected freelancers (“e-lancers”) can sometimes do the same things more effectively. This way of organizing is already common in the film industry, for example, where a producer, a director, actors, cinematographers, and others come together for the purpose of making one movie and then disband and rearrange in different combinations to make others.

In other cases, you can get many of the benefits of markets inside the boundaries of large companies. For example, some companies today are beginning to experiment with micro-level internal markets where employees of the company buy and sell things among themselves, and their internal trading is just another way of allocating resources for the company as a whole. One semiconductor company, for instance, has looked at letting individual salespeople and plant managers buyand sell individual products directly to each other in an internal electronic market. This gives the plants very immediate and dynamic feedback about which products to make each day, and it helps the salespeople continually set prices for external customers.

To understand why decentralized things like these are likely to happen more often in the future, you need to understand what leads to centralization and decentralization in the first place.

Why Is This Happening?

Of course, there are many factors that affect how and where decisions are made in a business, or for that matter, in any organization. Here are just a few of the factors that sometimes matter: Who already has the information needed to make good decisions? Who already has the power to make the decisions, and whom do they trust to make decisions on their behalf? What specific individuals are potential decision makers, and what are their capabilities and motivations? What are the cultural assumptions in the company and its country about what kinds of people should make decisions? All these factors vary widely from situation to situation, but in general, they aren’t changing dramatically in any single direction overall.

There is, however, another factor that affects where decisions are made in businesses, and this factor is changing dramatically in the same direction almost everywhere. In fact, when we look back carefully at the history of humanity, we can see that this very same factor has been implicated, time after time, in some of the most important historical changes in where decisions were made, not just in businesses, but in human societies, too.

What could this factor possibly be?

It’s the cost of communication.

When the only form of communication was face-to-face conversation, our distant hunting and gathering ancestors organized themselves in small, egalitarian, decentralized groups called bands. Over many millennia, as hunting and gathering gave way to agriculture, and as our ancestors learned to communicate over long distances more cheaply by writing, they were able to form larger and larger societies ruled by kings, emperors, and other centralized rulers (see fig. 2). These larger societies had many economic and military advantages over the hunting and gathering bands, but their members had to give up some of their freedom to get these benefits.

Then, only a few hundred years ago, our ancestors invented a new communication technology, the printing press, which reduced even further the costs of communicating to large numbers of people. This time, the declining costs of communication allowed our ancestors to reverse their millennia-long march toward greater centralization. Instead, soon after the printing press came into wide use, the democratic revolution began. Then, ordinary people—who could now be much better informed about political matters—came to have more say in their own government than they had usually had in all the millennia since our hunting and gathering days.

The major ways human societies have been organized throughout history reveal a remarkably simple pattern that foreshadows how businesses are changing now.

Was the declining cost of communication the only factor that caused all these societal changes? Of course not. Each of these changes arose from complex combinations of forces involving many other factors as well. For instance, our human desires for individual freedom—and for the motivation and flexibility that often accompany individual freedom—were critical. But the declining costs of communication allowed by new information technologies like writing and printing played a key role in enabling each of these changes. And it is certainly interesting, to say the least, that the very same underlying factor is implicated in such diverse and important changes in human societies as the rise of kingdoms and the rise of democracies.

Even more remarkable still is the fact that this very same pattern appears to be repeating itself now—at a much faster rate—in the history of business organizations as well!

Throughout most of human history, up until the 1800s, most businesses were organized as small, local, often family affairs, similar in many ways to the bands of our hunting and gathering ancestors. But by the 1900s, new communication technologies like telegraph, telephone, typewriters, and carbon paper finally provided enough communication capacity to allow businesses to grow and centralize on a large scale like governments had begun to do many millennia earlier (see fig. 3). By taking advantage of economies of scale and knowledge, these large business kingdoms were able to achieve an unprecedented level of material prosperity.

As a result of this massive—and successful—move toward centralization of business in the twentieth century, many of us still unconsciously associate success in business with bigness and centralization. But in order to achieve these economic benefits of bigness, many of the individual workers in these large companies had to give up some of the freedom and flexibility they had in the farms and small businesses of the previous era.

It’s obvious that new information technologies can still be used to continue this trend—to keep creating ever-larger and more centralized business kingdoms. And some of the important business changes in the years to come will still be continuations of this previous trend—integrating larger and larger groups of people to take advantage of economies of scale or knowledge.

But just as the rise of democracies reversed a trend toward centralization in societies that had lasted for millennia, we are now beginning to see signs of a similar reversal in business.

With new technologies like e-mail, instant messaging, and the Internet, it’s now becoming economically feasible—for the first time in human history—to give huge numbers of people the information they need to make more choices for themselves.

In the places where this makes economic sense, that means many more people can have the kinds of freedom and flexibility in business that used to be common only in small organizations. When people are making their own decisions, for instance, rather than just following orders, they are often more dedicated, more creative, and more innovative.

The major changes in how businesses were organized through history echo similar changes in the ways societies were organized.

Decentralized businesses can usually be more flexible, too—both with their customers and with their own workers. Because they give people more choices, decentralized businesses just plain have a lot more chances to give people the things they really want. In other words, they give people more freedom.

But these new decentralized businesses don’t have the limitations that small, isolated businesses did in the past. Because these new organizations have access to the best information available anywhere in the world, they can also benefit from many of the advantages of large organizations, too. If there are economies of scale in parts of their business, for instance, they can find the best suppliers in the world for those things. They can find customers all over the world, and they can use electronic reputation systems to establish credibility with potential customers who’ve never heard of them. And if someone on the other side of the globe has figured out how to do something better, they can learn from that experience, too.

Of course, this kind of decentralization doesn’t work well in all situations. In some places, for instance, like making certain kinds of semiconductors, the critical factors in business success are just economies of scale. And, in these places, we should expect cheaper communication to lead to more centralization in order to take advantage of these economies of scale.

But in our increasingly knowledge-based and innovation-driven economy, the critical factors in business success are often precisely the same as the benefits of decentralized decision making: motivation, creativity, flexibility, and innovation.

So even though it won’t happen everywhere, we should expect this change to more decentralized decision-making to happen in more and more parts of our economy over the coming decades.

Even where decentralization is desirable, however, the changes won’t all happen overnight. Just as the democratic transformation of societies evolved in fits and starts over a period of centuries, these changes in business will take decades to play out fully. And every time there is a setback in one place, or a failure to move forward somewhere else, there will be people who say that things aren’t going to change after all. When people over-invested in e-business and the speculative new economybubble burst, for instance, many people thought that the old economy had won, and we were going back to business as usual.

But the relentless improvements in the cost of communication, year after year, and decade after decade, mean that there will continue to be more and more opportunities for decentralization. These fundamental changes in the economics of communication and decision-making will continue working their way through our economy, company after company, and industry after industry, for many, many years to come.

What Does This Mean for You?

If decentralization becomes desirable in more and more places in business, then we’ll need to manage in new ways. But no matter how much we talk about new kinds of management, most of us still have—deep in our minds—models of management based on the classic centralized philosophy of command and control. To be successful in the world we’re entering, you’ll need a new—broader—set of mental models. While these new models shouldn’t exclude the possibility of commanding and controlling, they need to also encompass a much wider range of possibilities—both centralized and decentralized.

Here’s one way of summarizing this new perspective: we need to move from thinking about command and control to coordinate and cultivate. For example, when you coordinate, you organize work so that good things happen, whether you are in control or not. Some kinds of coordination are centralized; others are decentralized. But either way, coordinating focuses on the activities that need to be done and the relationships among them.

When you cultivate, you bring out the best in a situation by the right combination of controlling and letting go. Sometimes, for example, you need to give people top-down commands, but sometimes you just need to help them find and develop their own natural strengths. Good cultivation, therefore, involves finding the right balance between centralized and decentralized control. In fact, sometimes—paradoxically—the best way to gain power is to give it away.

In both these cases, coordinating and cultivating are not the opposites of commanding and controlling; they are the supersets. That is, they include the whole range of possibilities from completely centralized to completely decentralized.

And that is a key part of how the world of management is changing: to be an effective manager in the world we’re entering, you can’t be stuck in a centralized mindset. You need to be able to move flexibly back and forth on the decentralization continuum as the situation demands. Since most of us already understand centralization pretty well, the thing that’s new—the thing we need to understand better—is decentralization.

The Choices

Like the democratic revolution that preceded it, the business revolution we have entered is a time of dramatic change in the economies, the organizations, and the cultural assumptions of our society. And, as in any time of dramatic change, small choices can often have big effects. Whether you participate in events as significant as writing the American Declaration of Independence or whether you just make lots of daily decisions about what work to do and how to do it, you will be shaping the world in which we and our descendants will live for the rest of this century.

If you choose to, you can use the new possibilities enabled by information technology to help create a world that is both more economically efficient and more flexible than has ever before been possible in human history. There are many powerful economic forces that will lead us to do just that, to combine the economic benefits of bigness—like global scale and diverse knowledge—with the human benefits of smallness—like flexibility, creativity, and motivation.

But that isn’t the end of the possibilities these new technologies provide. Because more people will have more choices, they can bring more of their own values into business. And that means you can put a broader range of your human values, not just your economic ones, at the center of your thinking about business.

In other words, you can—if you choose—use your work to help create a world that is not just richer, but also a world that is better.

That is the choice before you.

 

How Is the Internet Changing the Way We Work- - OpenMind 2014-04-07 19-35-44

The Revival of Cancer Immunotherapy

 

 

An old idea for treating cancer is yielding impressive results on cancer patients—and lots of attention from drug companies.

Why It Matters

Some eight million people die of cancer each year.

Immune infantry: T cells (yellow) attack cancer cells (pink) in this colorized micrograph.

New medicines that shrink tumors and have beneficial effects lasting for months to years in some cancer patients are helping breathe new life into an old idea: using a patient’s own immune cells to attack malignant cells.

Several drug makers are trying to prove the safety and efficacy of new medicines that harness the body’s own lines of defense. Merck, for one, is testing an immune-modulating compound in patients with metastatic, or spreading, melanoma. In an early-stage trial, half of the patients receiving the highest-attempted dose of the drug saw their tumors shrink or disappear, and more than a year later, the vast majority of those patients who responded to that dose and lower doses were still alive. On average, the prognosis for survival a patient with late-stage metastatic melanoma is less than a year.

“This is not a garden-variety cancer treatment development program,” says Roger Perlmutter, an immunologist who heads R&D at Merck. “This looks special at this stage,” he says.

Merck’s compound is an antibody, a Y-shaped biological molecule that grabs onto a specific protein. The target protein normally prevents immune cells from attacking cancer. By blocking the activity of that protein, the antibody frees the immune cell to fight the disease. Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and others are also developing antibodies to release such brakes on the immune system.

New details of how these compounds work and for whom will be presented by many groups involved in the new push for cancer immunotherapy at this year’s American Association for Cancer Research meeting, in San Diego. The conference, which started on Saturday, is the largest meeting of oncologists and oncology researchers in the world. Although researchers express excitement about the potential for immune-modulating medicines to combat cancer—some experts even use the word “cure”—many caution that it will take time to fully understand how well the treatments are working.

Just a few years ago, many in the biomedical community would have been skeptical. Numerous attempts to induce the immune system to attack cancer had proved ineffective in humans, says Charles Link, CEO of New Link Genetics, a biotech company that has been developing immunotherapies for years. “But as the sophistication of our understanding of immunology increased, new strategies evolved to attack the disease, and those strategies are turning out to work in the clinic,” says Link.

“It is exciting—we have been working on this for so long, and now finally human results show it clearly works,” says Jianzhu Chen, a biologist at the Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research at MIT, who studies cancer immunotherapy. “This will have a major impact on cancer treatment.”

In 2011, Bristol-Myers Squibb began to sell Yervoy, also an antibody, which was the first marketed medicine to disrupt the process that prevents immune cells from attacking cancer. The treatment has shown to nearly double the survival rate of metastatic melanoma patients, enabling 20 percent of patients to live up to four years after diagnosis. The clinical trial of Yervoy was the first ever to show that life could be extended for advanced melanoma patients.

The antibody medicines represent just one part of the renaissance of cancer immunotherapy. There’s also been progress in a form of cellular therapy that engineers a patient’s own immune cells to better recognize cancer cells, after which they are infused back into the patient. Other companies, such as Amgen, are developing virus-based gene therapies that selectively kill cancer cells while simultaneously making the cells better targets for the immune system (see “When Will Gene Therapy Come to the U.S.?”).

The immune system can be a powerful ally for doctors, but they must tread carefully. “We know the immune system is capable of killing any cell. If we aren’t careful, we could trigger systemic autoimmune disease of major consequences,” says Perlmutter. “We have to take advantage of the enormous potential of immune recognition and response and at same time leave ourselves in a position where we can control that activity,” he says.

So far, the treatments have been tested on only a subset of cancer types—mostly melanoma but also lung cancers and breast cancers, among others. Researchers will have to test the treatments on more cancer types to know how wide a range of malignancies they can attack, and whether certain targets, or even combination of targets, are needed. “It may be that in different tumor types, different immune modulators will have different importance,” says Deborah Law, who heads one of Merck’s biologics research units. “Combination approaches might be most effective,” she says.

 

Technology Review - La rivista del MIT per l'innovazione - Mozilla Firefox 2014-02-27 12.32.02

Synonyms for 95 Commonly Used Words - A Mini-Thesaurus for Writers

 

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Synonyms for 95 Commonly Used Words in the English language

  1. Amazing — incredible, unbelievable, improbable, fabulous, wonderful, fantastic, astonishing, astounding, extraordinary
  2. Anger — enrage, infuriate, arouse, nettle, exasperate, inflame, madden
  3. Angry — mad, furious, enraged, excited, wrathful, indignant, exasperated, aroused, inflamed
  4. Answer — reply, respond, retort, acknowledge
  5. Ask — question, inquire of, seek information from, put a question to, demand, request, expect, inquire, query, interrogate, examine, quiz
  6. Awful — dreadful, terrible, abominable, bad, poor, unpleasant
  7. Bad — evil, immoral, wicked, corrupt, sinful, depraved, rotten, contaminated, spoiled, tainted, harmful, injurious, unfavourable, defective, inferior, imperfect, substandard, faulty, improper, inappropriate, unsuitable, disagreeable, unpleasant, cross, nasty, unfriendly, irascible, horrible, atrocious, outrageous, scandalous, infamous, wrong, noxious, sinister, putrid, snide, deplorable, dismal, gross, heinous, nefarious, base, obnoxious, detestable, despicable, contemptible, foul, rank, ghastly, execrable
  8. Beautiful — pretty, lovely, handsome, attractive, gorgeous, dazzling, splendid, magnificent, comely, fair, ravishing, graceful, elegant, fine, exquisite, aesthetic, pleasing, shapely, delicate, stunning, glorious, heavenly, resplendent, radiant, glowing, blooming, sparkling
  9. Begin — start, open, launch, initiate, commence, inaugurate, originate
  10. Big — enormous, huge, immense, gigantic, vast, colossal, gargantuan, large, sizable, grand, great, tall, substantial, mammoth, astronomical, ample, broad, expansive, spacious, stout, tremendous, titanic, mountainous
  11. Brave — courageous, fearless, dauntless, intrepid, plucky, daring, heroic, valorous, audacious, bold, gallant, valiant, doughty, mettlesome
  12. Break — fracture, rupture, shatter, smash, wreck, crash, demolish, atomize
  13. Bright — shining, shiny, gleaming, brilliant, sparkling, shimmering, radiant, vivid, colourful, lustrous, luminous, incandescent, intelligent, knowing, quick-witted, smart, intellectual
  14. Calm — quiet, peaceful, still, tranquil, mild, serene, smooth, composed, collected, unruffled, level-headed, unexcited, detached, aloof
  15. Come — approach, advance, near, arrive, reach
  16. Cool — chilly, cold, frosty, wintry, icy, frigid
  17. Crooked — bent, twisted, curved, hooked, zigzag
  18. Cry — shout, yell, yowl, scream, roar, bellow, weep, wail, sob, bawl
  19. Cut — gash, slash, prick, nick, sever, slice, carve, cleave, slit, chop, crop, lop, reduce
  20. Dangerous — perilous, hazardous, risky, uncertain, unsafe
  21. Dark — shadowy, unlit, murky, gloomy, dim, dusky, shaded, sunless, black, dismal, sad
  22. Decide — determine, settle, choose, resolve
  23. Definite — certain, sure, positive, determined, clear, distinct, obvious
  24. Delicious — savoury, delectable, appetizing, luscious, scrumptious, palatable, delightful, enjoyable, toothsome, exquisite
  25. Describe — portray, characterize, picture, narrate, relate, recount, represent, report, record
  26. Destroy — ruin, demolish, raze, waste, kill, slay, end, extinguish
  27. Difference — disagreement, inequity, contrast, dissimilarity, incompatibility
  28. Do — execute, enact, carry out, finish, conclude, effect, accomplish, achieve, attain
  29. Dull — boring, tiring„ tiresome, uninteresting, slow, dumb, stupid, unimaginative, lifeless, dead, insensible, tedious, wearisome, listless, expressionless, plain, monotonous, humdrum, dreary
  30. Eager — keen, fervent, enthusiastic, involved, interested, alive to
  31. End — stop, finish, terminate, conclude, close, halt, cessation, discontinuance
  32. Enjoy — appreciate, delight in, be pleased, indulge in, luxuriate in, bask in, relish, devour, savour, like
  33. Explain — elaborate, clarify, define, interpret, justify, account for
  34. Fair — just, impartial, unbiased, objective, unprejudiced, honest
  35. Fall — drop, descend, plunge, topple, tumble
  36. False — fake, fraudulent, counterfeit, spurious, untrue, unfounded, erroneous, deceptive, groundless, fallacious
  37. Famous — well-known, renowned, celebrated, famed, eminent, illustrious, distinguished, noted, notorious
  38. Fast — quick, rapid, speedy, fleet, hasty, snappy, mercurial, swiftly, rapidly, quickly, snappily, speedily, lickety-split, post-haste, hastily, expeditiously, like a flash
  39. Fat — stout, corpulent, fleshy, beefy, paunchy, plump, full, rotund, tubby, pudgy, chubby, chunky, burly, bulky, elephantine
  40. Fear — fright, dread, terror, alarm, dismay, anxiety, scare, awe, horror, panic, apprehension
  41. Fly — soar, hover, flit, wing, flee, waft, glide, coast, skim, sail, cruise
  42. Funny — humorous, amusing, droll, comic, comical, laughable, silly
  43. Get — acquire, obtain, secure, procure, gain, fetch, find, score, accumulate, win, earn, rep, catch, net, bag, derive, collect, gather, glean, pick up, accept, come by, regain, salvage
  44. Go — recede, depart, fade, disappear, move, travel, proceed
  45. Good — excellent, fine, superior, wonderful, marvellous, qualified, suited, suitable, apt, proper, capable, generous, kindly, friendly, gracious, obliging, pleasant, agreeable, pleasurable, satisfactory, well-behaved, obedient, honourable, reliable, trustworthy, safe, favourable, profitable, advantageous, righteous, expedient, helpful, valid, genuine, ample, salubrious, estimable, beneficial, splendid, great, noble, worthy, first-rate, top-notch, grand, sterling, superb, respectable, edifying
  46. Great — noteworthy, worthy, distinguished, remarkable, grand, considerable, powerful, much, mighty
  47. Gross — improper, rude, coarse, indecent, crude, vulgar, outrageous, extreme, grievous, shameful, uncouth, obscene, low
  48. Happy — pleased, contented, satisfied, delighted, elated, joyful, cheerful, ecstatic, jubilant, gay, tickled, gratified, glad, blissful, overjoyed
  49. Hate — despise, loathe, detest, abhor, disfavour, dislike, disapprove, abominate
  50. Have — hold, possess, own, contain, acquire, gain, maintain, believe, bear, beget, occupy, absorb, fill, enjoy
  51. Help — aid, assist, support, encourage, back, wait on, attend, serve, relieve, succour, benefit, befriend, abet
  52. Hide — conceal, cover, mask, cloak, camouflage, screen, shroud, veil
  53. Hurry — rush, run, speed, race, hasten, urge, accelerate, bustle
  54. Hurt — damage, harm, injure, wound, distress, afflict, pain
  55. Idea — thought, concept, conception, notion, understanding, opinion, plan, view, belief
  56. Important — necessary, vital, critical, indispensable, valuable, essential, significant, primary, principal, considerable, famous, distinguished, notable, well-known
  57. Interesting — fascinating, engaging, sharp, keen, bright, intelligent, animated, spirited, attractive, inviting, intriguing, provocative, though-provoking, challenging, inspiring, involving, moving, titillating, tantalizing, exciting, entertaining, piquant, lively, racy, spicy, engrossing, absorbing, consuming, gripping, arresting, enthralling, spellbinding, curious, captivating, enchanting, bewitching, appealing
  58. Keep — hold, retain, withhold, preserve, maintain, sustain, support
  59. Kill — slay, execute, assassinate, murder, destroy, cancel, abolish
  60. Lazy — indolent, slothful, idle, inactive, sluggish
  61. Little — tiny, small, diminutive, shrimp, runt, miniature, puny, exiguous, dinky, cramped, limited, itsy-bitsy, microscopic, slight, petite, minute
  62. Look — gaze, see, glance, watch, survey, study, seek, search for, peek, peep, glimpse, stare, contemplate, examine, gape, ogle, scrutinize, inspect, leer, behold, observe, view, witness, perceive, spy, sight, discover, notice, recognize, peer, eye, gawk, peruse, explore
  63. Love — like, admire, esteem, fancy, care for, cherish, adore, treasure, worship, appreciate, savour
  64. Make — create, originate, invent, beget, form, construct, design, fabricate, manufacture, produce, build, develop, do, effect, execute, compose, perform, accomplish, earn, gain, obtain, acquire, get
  65. Mark — label, tag, price, ticket, impress, effect, trace, imprint, stamp, brand, sign, note, heed, notice, designate
  66. Mischievous — prankish, playful, naughty, roguish, waggish, impish, sportive
  67. Move — plod, go, creep, crawl, inch, poke, drag, toddle, shuffle, trot, dawdle, walk, traipse, mosey, jog, plug, trudge, slump, lumber, trail, lag, run, sprint, trip, bound, hotfoot, high-tail, streak, stride, tear, breeze, whisk, rush, dash, dart, bolt, fling, scamper, scurry, skedaddle, scoot, scuttle, scramble, race, chase, hasten, hurry, hump, gallop, lope, accelerate, stir, budge, travel, wander, roam, journey, trek, ride, spin, slip, glide, slide, slither, coast, flow, sail, saunter, hobble, amble, stagger, paddle, slouch, prance, straggle, meander, perambulate, waddle, wobble, pace, swagger, promenade, lunge
  68. Moody — temperamental, changeable, short-tempered, glum, morose, sullen, modish, irritable, testy, peevish, fretful, spiteful, sulky, touchy
  69. Neat — clean, orderly, tidy, trim, dapper, natty, smart, elegant, well-organized, super, desirable, spruce, shipshape, well-kept, shapely
  70. New — fresh, unique, original, unusual, novel, modern, current, recent
  71. Old — feeble, frail, ancient, weak, aged, used, worn, dilapidated, ragged, faded, broken-down, former, old-fashioned, outmoded, passé, veteran, mature, venerable, primitive, traditional, archaic, conventional, customary, stale, musty, obsolete, extinct
  72. Part — portion, share, piece, allotment, section, fraction, fragment
  73. Place — space, area, spot, plot, region, location, situation, position, residence, dwelling, set, site, station, status, state
  74. Plan — plot, scheme, design, draw, map, diagram, procedure, arrangement, intention, device, contrivance, method, way, blueprint
  75. Popular — well-liked, approved, accepted, favourite, celebrated, common, current
  76. Predicament — quandary, dilemma, pickle, problem, plight, spot, scrape, jam
  77. Put — place, set, attach, establish, assign, keep, save, set aside, effect, achieve, do, build
  78. Quiet — silent, still, soundless, mute, tranquil, peaceful, calm, restful
  79. Right — correct, accurate, factual, true, good, just, honest, upright, lawful, moral, proper, suitable, apt, legal, fair
  80. Run — race, speed, hurry, hasten, sprint, dash, rush, escape, elope, flee
  81. Scared — afraid, frightened, alarmed, terrified, panicked, fearful, unnerved, insecure, timid, shy, skittish, jumpy, disquieted, worried, vexed, troubled, disturbed, horrified, terrorized, shocked, petrified, haunted, timorous, shrinking, tremulous, stupefied, paralyzed, stunned, apprehensive
  82. Show — display, exhibit, present, note, point to, indicate, explain, reveal, prove, demonstrate, expose
  83. Slow — unhurried, gradual, leisurely, late, behind, tedious, slack
  84. Stop — cease, halt, stay, pause, discontinue, conclude, end, finish, quit
  85. Story — tale, myth, legend, fable, yarn, account, narrative, chronicle, epic, sage, anecdote, record, memoir
  86. Strange — odd, peculiar, unusual, unfamiliar, uncommon, queer, weird, outlandish, curious, unique, exclusive, irregular
  87. Take — hold, catch, seize, grasp, win, capture, acquire, pick, choose, select, prefer, remove, steal, lift, rob, engage, bewitch, purchase, buy, retract, recall, assume, occupy, consume
  88. Tell — disclose, reveal, show, expose, uncover, relate, narrate, inform, advise, explain, divulge, declare, command, order, bid, recount, repeat
  89. Think — judge, deem, assume, believe, consider, contemplate, reflect, mediate
  90. Trouble — distress, anguish, anxiety, worry, wretchedness, pain, danger, peril, disaster, grief, misfortune, difficulty, concern, pains, inconvenience, exertion, effort
  91. True — accurate, right, proper, precise, exact, valid, genuine, real, actual, trusty, steady, loyal, dependable, sincere, staunch
  92. Ugly — hideous, frightful, frightening, shocking, horrible, unpleasant, monstrous, terrifying, gross, grisly, ghastly, horrid, unsightly, plain, homely, evil, repulsive, repugnant, gruesome
  93. Unhappy — miserable, uncomfortable, wretched, heart-broken, unfortunate, poor, downhearted, sorrowful, depressed, dejected, melancholy, glum, gloomy, dismal, discouraged, sad
  94. Use — employ, utilize, exhaust, spend, expend, consume, exercise
  95. Wrong — incorrect, inaccurate, mistaken, erroneous, improper, unsuitable 

Synonyms for 95 Commonly Used Words - A Mini-Thesaurus for Writers - Writers Write 2014-04-07 18-47-34

Global Conflict Could Threaten Geostationary Satellites

 

China, Russia and the U.S. have the ability to destroy one another’s eyes in the sky

Mar 31, 2014 |By Jeremy Hsu

rocket launch

Rocket launch carrying SBIRS GEO-2 U.S. miltary satellite. Credit: Pat Corkery/United Launch Alliance

During the Cold War the U.S. and Soviet Union had a gentlemen's agreement to avoid targeting one another's geostationary satellites, which are crucial for weather forecasts, satellite TV, global communications and, of course, military intelligence and surveillance. Decades later mistrust over military intentions in space has cast fresh uncertainty over the security of the numerous geostationary satellites orbiting more than 22,000 miles above Earth's equator.

A satellite in geosynchronous orbit stays “fixed” above the same region of Earth by traveling at the same speed as the planet's rotation. From its lofty perch it can continuously observe one area or communicate with ground receivers. They are incredibly valuable for both government and commercial purposes—the satellite TV industry, which depends on geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) satellites, is alone worth about $95 billion annually, according to the Space Foundation. The U.S. military depends heavily on its GEO satellites for everything from early warnings about ballistic missile launches to protected communications with far-flung forces across the globe. "What the U.S. military is grappling with now is the potential for other countries to reach out and touch those satellites," says Brian Weeden, technical advisor for the Secure World Foundation in Broomfield, Colo. "And so it’s looking to how it could protect itself."

This year, the U.S. Air Force unveiled its formerly classified Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program (GSSAP), which envisions a pair of maneuverable satellites, capable of operating both above and below the zone of geosynchronous Earth orbit, to monitor spacecraft and space debris throughout the entire GEO belt. The first pair of GSSAP satellites received a priority launch slot scheduled for September 2014 after U.S. officials bumped back a test flight of NASA's Orion spacecraft, the space agency’s next-generation manned spacecraft.

The Air Force satellites will complement existing ground and low Earth orbit telescopes that currently keep track of all objects in geostationary orbit by providing a much closer view of objects in that belt, Weeden explained. That would make it easier to eyeball potential antisatellite threats—a form of "neighborhood watch" deterrence that the U.S. wants other countries to know about.

Technological threats to GEO satellites are nothing new. For instance, in the 1980s the Soviet Union developed parts of its Naryad antisatellite (ASAT) system to place "kill vehicles" in orbit that could attack GEO satellites. The military project only carried out a few known launch tests, but it eventually evolved into a Russian commercial launch system called Briz-M that represents the upper stage of rockets used for launching payloads to high orbits such as GEO. China recently pushed ASAT capabilities to new heights by launching a rocket "on a ballistic trajectory nearly to geosynchronous Earth orbit" on May 13, 2013, according to U.S. military officials.

Chinese officials said the rocket carried scientific payloads for high-altitude experiments. By contrast, U.S. analysts found strong evidence suggesting the launch represented the world's first test of a direct-ascent ASAT missile system designed to intercept GEO satellites without first going into orbit, as detailed by Weeden in The Space Review. That development, coupled with the lack of a "gentlemen's agreement" between the U.S. and Chinese militaries, has left U.S. analysts worrying about whether a future political crisis might prompt China to consider a crippling strike on U.S. military satellites. "When there are situations, as currently, where trust is low between Asian countries, between China and the U.S., and increasingly between Russia and other countries, dual-use space technology can create security dilemmas," wrote Joan Johnson-Freese, professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College in Rhode Island. (“Dual-use” is the term for technologies that fit both civilian and military purposes.)

One bad day in geosynchronous Earth orbit could quickly turn into a bad day for everyone. A direct ascent ASAT weapon destroying a GEO satellite could create a swarm of space junk that proves far more dangerous to satellites in the "narrow racetrack" of GEO than in low Earth orbit, Weeden said. In one simulation of a collision between two objects in GEO, the resulting space debris spread around half of the GEO belt within a few days. Still, China may rethink such a strike as it becomes more dependent on GEO satellites in the future. The 447 operational GEO satellites currently tracked by the Union of Concerned Scientists include 177 from the U.S., 35 from China and 22 from Russia.

Of course, China may view U.S. space activities with equal suspicion. The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is currently developing small satellites under its Phoenix project capable of sidling up to a satellite in geosynchronous orbit and harvesting and reusing parts of it. Such capability could also serve the dual purpose of disassembling GEO satellites from other countries without creating much space debris. "If you sidle up to a Chinese satellite and pull the solar panels off, it's effectively an antisatellite weapon," says Micah Walter-Range, director of research and analysis at the Space Foundation in Colorado Springs, Colo.

No easy solutions exist for reducing potential threats to GEO satellites. But Weeden suggests the U.S. could start by talking more publicly about China's suspected ASAT test. That could generate international dialogue on how to handle the growing threats to GEO satellites—as long as the U.S. is also ready to frankly discuss its own ASAT capabilities.

 

A Happy Life May not be a Meaningful Life - Scientific American - Mozilla Firefox 2014-02-19 18.42.38

Exploring The City of Bordeaux, France

 

April 6, 2014 / By Matt Long

When I learned that the travel writer preview Viking River Cruise was going to be in Bordeaux I got excited. Not only do I love France, but way back in college I actually worked for a winery, so the chance to tour one of the most famous wine regions in the world was an extraordinary opportunity. One of the most important things I learned that in addition to being a region of France, the city of Bordeaux is an equally impressive place.

Given the fact that I didn’t know there was even a city of Bordeaux, nearly everything surprised me about my time there, in a good way. Our Viking Longship was moored adjacent to the historic core of the city, the perfect spot from which to launch my exploration. With nearly 250,000 people, the city isn’t a small one but up until a few years ago few tourists spent any time here. But an effort by the local government to clean up and revitalize the historic center of the city has led to Bordeaux being a tourist spot in addition to the nearby vineyards.

Inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage list as an outstanding urban and architectural ensemble, Bordeaux features a creative mix of beautiful historic architecture and modern art installations throughout town. A focal point of any tour is the Place de la Bourse, a royal square dedicated to the French ruler Louis XV. Walking around this massive area and the park in front, I couldn’t help but notice how busy it was. It was a beautiful spring day and hundreds of people were laying in the nearby park, playing in the captivating water mirror and just enjoying themselves. That was a constant theme throughout my stay in the city, the importance of enjoying life.

Wandering through town I passed by small cafes tucked into narrow alleys, enormous pedestrian shopping zones and huge monuments to ages long past. The city’s cleaning efforts had paid off; years of black grime is gone and in its place the centuries old buildings shine as if they were just erected.

So when you find yourself exploring one of France’s most famous wine regions, be sure to plan extra time for the city of Bordeaux, it’s not a place many people talk about but one that I found myself loving almost right away.

Bordeaux, France

credit:

Exploring The City of Bordeaux, France 2014-04-07 13-15-51