Governments should take active lead to create healthy food environments to prevent cardiovascular disease

 

In 2010, unhealthy eating was identified as the leading risk for death and disability both in Canada and globally. In Canada, as in most industrialized countries, preventable cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease account for roughly two-thirds of all deaths each year. Poor diet, broadly defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as one being high in sodium, saturated and trans fats, free sugar, and low in fresh fruits and vegetables, is among the leading risk factors.

Led by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Heart & Stroke Foundation of Canada (CIHR/HSF) Chair in Hypertension Prevention and Control , supported by fifteen leading national and provincial health organizations, this position statement calls upon governments to take action to develop and implement healthy food procurement policies across the spectrum of our society. It also outlines key roles and recommendations for the commercial and non-commercial sectors including health and scientific organizations as well as the Canadian public.

The statement is based on a systematic review of the literature that found healthy food procurement interventions do have an important impact on food purchases within closed systems such as schools, workplaces, and isolated communities. The review further acknowledged that successful food procurement policies are nearly always accompanied by supporting education programs and sometimes by pricing policies, such as taxation or subsidies.

This statement is part of an international movement to reduce dietary risk, with the recognition that toxic foods (with excessive amounts of sugar, fat, refined grain products, and/or salt) are responsible for substantial population sickness and premature death. The supporting organizations call on all individuals, but specifically those with organizational responsibility for others, to immediately begin to work on implementing healthy food procurement policies as part of a comprehensive approach to reduce dietary risk and prevent diet-related disease.

"Education, knowledge, and awareness are not enough. Extensive education over a period of years, even in clinical trial settings, has only a small sustained impact on sodium consumption and obesity reduction," says Norm Campbell, MD, FRCPC, Professor of Medicine, Physiology and Pharmacology and Community Health Sciences, at the Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada, and chair of the Canadian Hypertension Advisory Committee. "The solution advocated by the United Nations and WHO focuses on a series of integrated governmental policies to improve the food environment coupled with education. Studies in the US show that implementing healthy food procurement policies in the commercial sector as a part of a worksite wellness program has the potential to save businesses money through improved productivity and reduced absenteeism. Canada has the opportunity to do the same through widespread adoption of such policies. Canadians can't make healthy choices if they don't have an environment that supports them making such choices. This is one step in that direction."

Among the recommendations are:

• In conjunction with healthy food procurement, implement an education program about healthy eating and describe the rationale for the food procurement policy to ensure support and to increase awareness, desire, and demand for healthy dietary choices.
• Encourage consumption of fresh foods (fruits, vegetables, etc.) or if not available, frozen or canned (without addition of sodium, sugar, or fats).
• Take steps to ensure healthier foods and beverages are affordable.
• Ensure that foods are well suited to the tastes/preferences/dietary needs of the population being served (e.g., age, ethno-cultural groups).
• Include criteria for the amount of sodium, free sugars, trans fatty acids, saturated fats, and calories as well as other nutrients likely to impact health (e.g., dietary fiber) in the food being served.
• Use national standards such as the Canadian Dietary Reference Intake Values, developed by the Institute of Medicine, and Canada's Guide to Healthy Eating in developing criteria for foods.
• Make gradual changes in the nutrient criteria where personal tastes require time to adapt to change (e.g., sodium).
• Update the policy periodically to reflect current nutrient needs.
• Evaluate the implementation program and, where appropriate, introduce effective incentives for compliance.

This call to action is supported by the Alberta Policy Coalition for Chronic Disease Prevention, Canadian Association of Cardiac Rehabilitation and Prevention, Canadian Association on Gerontology, Canadian Council of Cardiovascular Nurses, Canadian Diabetes Association, Canadian Geriatrics Society, Canadian Nurses Association, Canadian Society for Exercise Physiology, Canadian Society of Internal Medicine, Canadian Society of Nephrology, Canadian Stroke Network, Champlain Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Network, College of Family Physicians of Canada, Heart and Stroke Foundation, and Hypertension Canada.

In a timely viewpoint article, "Death by Diet: The Role of Food Pricing Interventions as a Public Policy Response and Health Advocacy Opportunity," published in the same issue, experts discuss the role of health professionals as health advocates and the corresponding opportunity to support other population level approaches, namely food taxes and subsidies, to improve diet for the prevention of diet-related chronic disease.

"Similar to efforts being proposed in other countries, Canada needs a comprehensive agenda for action to curb the rising tide of diet-related disease. While this paper highlights the need for more research in the area of diet and policy-level strategies, it also identifies the opportunity for the cardiovascular community to be involved in policy initiatives and partnerships to begin to translate what we know can work into action and implementation," say lead author Tara Duhaney, MHSc, Policy Director of the Canadian Hypertension Advisory Committee, Alberta, Canada, and Norm Campbell, MD, FRCPC. "We hope this will further discussion, support, and action by all vested stakeholders including health professionals, researchers, communities, and, importantly, by all levels of government."

Breathe easier: Get your vitamin D

 

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A new study finds asthmatics with Vitamin D deficiency are 25 percent more likely to experience acute attacks.

Asthma, which inflames and narrows the airways, has become more common in recent years. While there is no known cure, asthma can be managed with medication and by avoiding allergens and other triggers. A new study by a Tel Aviv University researcher points to a convenient, free way to manage acute asthmatic episodes -- catching some rays outside.

According to a paper recently published in the journal Allergy, measuring and, if need be, boosting Vitamin D levels could help manage asthma attacks. The research, conducted by Dr. Ronit Confino-Cohen of TAU's Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Meir Medical Center, and the Clalit Research Institute, and Dr. Becca Feldman of the Clalit Research Institute drew on the records of millions of patients and used physician diagnoses, rather than self-reports, for evidence of asthma episodes.

"Vitamin D has significant immunomodulatory effects and, as such, was believed to have an effect on asthma -- an immunologically mediated disease," said Dr. Confino-Cohen. "But most of the existing data regarding Vitamin D and asthma came from the pediatric population and was inconsistent. Our present study is unique because the study population of young adults is very large and 'uncontaminated' by other diseases."

A broad study

Dr. Confino-Cohen and her team of researchers analyzed the medical records of nearly four million members of Clalit Health Services, Israel's largest health care provider. The Vitamin D levels of 307,900 people were measured between 2008 and 2012. Researchers also took into account key predictors of asthma, such as obesity, smoking, and other chronic diseases. Of some 21,000 asthma patients in Israel studied, those with a Vitamin D deficiency were 25 percent more likely than other asthmatics to have had at least one flare-up in the recent past.

The researchers found that Vitamin D-deficient asthmatics were at a higher risk of an asthma attack. "Uncontrolled asthma" was defined as being prescribed at least five rescue inhalers, one prescription of oral corticosteroids, or visiting the doctor for asthma at least four times in a single year.

"Our results add more evidence to the link between Vitamin D and asthma, suggesting beneficial effects of Vitamin D on asthma exacerbations," said Dr. Confino-Cohen. "We expect that further prospective studies will support our results. In the meantime, our results support a recommendation for screening of Vitamin D levels in the subgroup of asthma patients who experience recurrent exacerbations. In those with Vitamin D deficiency, supplementation may be necessary."

Sunny side up?

While most of the Vitamin D in people's bodies comes from exposure to the sun, dermatologists recommend obtaining the ingredient from other sources -- fish, eggs, cod liver oil, fortified milk, or a dietary supplement -- due to the dangers of overexposure to the sun.

"We know a lot about this disease and many therapeutic options are available. So it's quite frustrating that the prevalence of asthma is not decreasing and many patients suffer exacerbations and significant impairment in their quality of life," Dr. Confino-Cohen, an allergy and clinical immunology specialist, said. "Increasing Vitamin D levels is something we can easily do to improve patients' quality of life."

Based on the findings, the researchers recommend that people whose asthma cannot be controlled with existing treatments have their Vitamin D levels tested. For those with a vitamin D deficiency, supplements may make sense.

"This study provided an exceptional opportunity to research asthma. I received a research grant from Clalit Health Services, which provided us with the opportunity to use their very large database and to conduct the study with the professional staff of Clalit Research Institute," said Dr. Confino-Cohen. "We anticipate further prospective research that will support our findings and open a new treatment modality to the population of uncontrolled asthmatics."

19 Reasons Your College Friends Will Be Your Friends For Life

 

They just get you. posted on Oct. 28, 2014, at 4:58 p.m.

 

You’ve seen each other at your absolute worst.

Comedy Central

Because college was the time to simultaneously throw up and then reach for another slice of pizza.

 

And you cheered each other on when you were at your best.

Warner Bros. / Via reddit.com

Hell yeah I’m going to your thesis presentation. Can I bring a cow bell?

You’re completely used to sharing a bed with them.

fuckyeah-cuteanimals.tumblr.com

Thank you for offering up your twin-sized bed every time I was sexiled.

Boundaries don’t exist in your friendship.

ABC / Via gifbay.com

I found you drunkenly crying in the shower once, so there’s no need to be shy.

You managed to maintain your friendship through the stress of exams.

Nickelodeon / Via wildbirds.tumblr.com

Thank you for not holding me accountable for anything I said finals week.

You get their family drama.

Indian Paintbrush / Via cussyeah-wesanderson.tumblr.com

So wait, are we still mad at your sister?

You hate the same people.

firewonk.tumblr.com

That girl who raises her hand with one minute left in class is THE WORST.

You know their dating history just as well as your own.

Warner Bros. / Via thatocfeeling.tumblr.com

And you’re there to make sure they don’t make the same mistake twice.

You don’t sugarcoat anything for each other.

A&M Films / Via infinitespocklove.tumblr.com

Yo, you have some shit in your teeth.

They are the best people to pillow talk with.

Fox / Via klaine.tumblr.com

We’re going to talk for two hours before actually sleeping, so plan accordingly.

You aren’t afraid of admitting how much they mean to you.

Warner Bros. / Via pixgood.com

And you know the feeling’s mutual.

You’ve lived together.

Fox / Via hobbes-the-cat.tumblr.com

And DESPITE that, you still love them.

You’re each other’s biggest fans.

Universal Pictures / Via reddit.com

IF THEY DON’T REALIZE HOW SPECIAL YOU ARE, THEY DON’T DESERVE YOU.

They’re the best people to do absolutely nothing with.

Want to come over and nap?

You don’t have to hold back from being your true weird self.

NBC / Via jajagabor.tumblr.com

I can only hope my future S.O. gets my weird like you do.

Nothing can beat the hours your spent bonding in the dining hall, gaining the freshman 15 together.

HBO / Via bellecs.tumblr.com

We’ve been here for three hours… whoops.

You’ve witnessed each other’s terrible decisions.

gifbay.com

Like when they dated this guy.

They would never judge you.

Nickelodeon / Via nickelodeon.tumblr.com

You threw up in a bush? Dude, been there.

And because over those four years, you really grew up together.

Fox Searchlight Pictures / Via missgerrard.tumblr.com

Because no one really knows who they are freshman year.

Prescription opioids involved in most overdoses seen in emergency departments

 

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In a national study of hospital emergency department visits for opioid overdoses, 67.8 percent of the overdoses involved prescription opioids (including methadone), followed by heroin, other unspecified opioids and multiple opioids, according to a research letter published online by JAMA Internal Medicine.

Opioid overdoses are a leading cause of death in the United States but little is known nationally about how opioid overdoses present in emergency departments (EDs).

Michael A. Yokell, Sc.B., of the Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, Calif., and colleagues analyzed the 2010 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample using diagnostic codes to define opioid overdoses. They identified 135,971 weighted ED visits that were coded for opioid overdose.

In addition to 67.8 percent of overdoses involving prescription opioids, researchers found heroin accounted for 16.1 percent of overdoses, unspecified opioids for 13.4 percent and multiple opioid types in 2.7 percent of overdoses. The greatest proportion of prescription opioid overdoses happened in urban areas (84.1 percent), in the South (40.2 percent) and among women (53 percent). The overall death rate was low (1.4 percent) once patients arrived in the ED, which the authors suggest supports increased use of emergency services for overdoses.

Many patients who overdosed shared common coexisting illnesses, including chronic mental health, circulatory and respiratory diseases, so health care providers who prescribe opioids to patients with these preexisting conditions should do so with care and counsel the patients, according to the authors. About half of the patients in the study sample who went to the ED for opioid overdoses were admitted to the hospital and costs for both inpatient and ED care totaled nearly $2.3 billion.

"Opioid overdose exacts a significant financial and health care utilization burden on the U.S. health care system. Most patients in our sample overdosed on prescription opioids, suggesting that further efforts to stem the prescription opioid overdose epidemic are urgently needed," the study concludes.

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Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by The JAMA Network Journals. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

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Journal Reference:

1. Michael A. Yokell, M. Kit Delgado, Nickolas D. Zaller, N. Ewen Wang, Samuel K. McGowan, Traci Craig Green. Presentation of Prescription and Nonprescription Opioid Overdoses to US Emergency Departments. JAMA Internal Medicine, 2014; DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2014.5413

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Football Stadium Arena Borisov by OFIS

 

Posted by Erin on October 29th, 2014

OFIS have designed a football stadium in Borisov, Belarus.

From the architects

The concept takes into account the natural advantages of the location and the existing interventions within the terrain, while maintaining as many of the existing trees on site as possible. Besides 13.000 seats there is additional 3.000 m2 of public space and are classified 4 stars according to UEFA categorization. Traffic and parking is organised between the forest.

The arena forms a unified rounded dome, giving the impression of a single enclosed object. The Skin of the dome gives an impression of a fragile stretched perforated textile pulled over the stadium skeleton. The covered space between the skin and the tribunes is a public street-a vestibule with public program (shops, bars, services, toilets) and galleries above (offices, VIP, press)

Internally, the rounded arena provides good acoustics and encourages an extrovert atmosphere from the players and the fans alike during the game, but focuses concentration during training time. The playing surface has N-S orientation, with a total area of 85×105 m, on which 68x105m is used for playing. The remaining area allows enough space for the installation of advertising screens, photographers and cameras. The seats are arranged around the playing field in rows of 17 along the sides and rows of 27-28 along the short sides. The upper west gallery is reserved for press cabins, with seats and tables for 40 journalists and direct stair access to the press room and mix zone. In the east are the VIP stands, with 250 seats and bar and entertainment spaces. The VIP is accessed directly via an elevator from the entrance area with a car driveway. The athletes have a separate access on the lower platform, with passage to team buses and parking. At each entry point to the field are two dressing rooms, mix zone, physiotherapy and a space for doping control.

There are 4 floors with extra program and service facilities under the west stand area and 3 floors under the east side. The foyer for visitors is located on the first floor level and has 4 stairway access points. It is a covered plateau, naturally ventilated and unheated. Extending all around the inner stadium arena, this space contains the visitor’s toilets, bars, first-aid room and detention: it is a place to break during half-time. 3.000 m2 of public program is distributed at ground level on the north, south and east ends of the structure. In the east, a restaurant and bowling area are located. The restaurant prepares meals for the VIP during the match, with a service elevator for catering to the VIP lounge and bar within its public foyer. In the south, there are public fitness/gym studios. Other public area spaces are designed for various commercial activities. All restaurants have access from the public platform. Around the platform is a rounded pedestrian square, as a peripheral roundabout and meeting area. Parking pockets are organized into the existing forest area.

Architect: OFIS

Photography by Tomaz Gregoric

Key to aortic valve disease prevention: Lowering cholesterol early

 

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An international research team led by the Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre (RI-MUHC) and Lund University has provided new evidence that aortic valve disease may be preventable. Their findings show that so-called "bad" cholesterol or low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) is a cause of aortic valve disease -- a serious heart condition that affects around five million people in North America and is the most common cause for valve replacement. The study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) and presented at the Canadian Cardiovascular Congress in Vancouver, could have major implications in the prevention of heart valve disease, a condition that currently has no known medical therapy.

"Many people have elevations in LDL-C, normally putting them at risk for heart attacks and strokes," says senior author and RI-MUHC researcher Dr. George Thanassoulis, who is also the MUHC Director of Preventive and Genomic Cardiology and an Assistant Professor in the Faculty of Medicine at McGill University. "We found that additionally, these people are also at risk for developing aortic valve disease."

The study involved approximately 35,000 participants in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genetic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium -- a large international collaborative. Researchers discovered that genetic predisposition to elevated LDL-C was associated with the presence of aortic valve calcium and narrowing of the aortic valve; thus supporting a causal association between LDL-C and aortic valve disease.

"Prior research has suggested a link between LDL-C and aortic valve disease but randomized trials of cholesterol lowering performed in patients with advanced disease did not show any benefit in slowing the progression of valve disease," explains first author, Dr. J. Gustav Smith from the Department of Cardiology at Lund University. "Our work provides confirmation that cholesterol is an important factor in the early stages of aortic valve disease and suggests that lowering cholesterol early in the disease process may provide protection from the development of aortic valve disease."

"Our next step calls for new randomized trials, maybe using one of several new LDL lowering agents, in the earliest stages of valve disease before we are able to confirm our hypothesis," concludes

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Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by McGill University Health Centre. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

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Journal Reference:

1. J. Gustav Smith, Kevin Luk, Christina-Alexandra Schulz, James C. Engert, Ron Do, George Hindy, Gull Rukh, Line Dufresne, Peter Almgren, David S. Owens, Tamara B. Harris, Gina M. Peloso, Kathleen F. Kerr, Quenna Wong, Albert V. Smith, Matthew J. Budoff, Jerome I. Rotter, L. Adrienne Cupples, Stephen Rich, Sekar Kathiresan, Marju Orho-Melander, Vilmundur Gudnason, Christopher J. O’Donnell, Wendy S. Post, George Thanassoulis. Association of Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol–Related Genetic Variants With Aortic Valve Calcium and Incident Aortic Stenosis. JAMA, 2014; DOI: 10.1001/jama.2014.13959

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Millions in unused medical supplies in U.S. operating rooms each year

 

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Redett and colleagues at Johns Hopkins recently published a study showing that major US hospitals collectively throw away at least $15 million a year in unused surgical supplies that could be salvaged to ease critical shortages in developing countries.

A Johns Hopkins research team reports that major hospitals across the U.S. collectively throw away at least $15 million a year in unused operating room surgical supplies that could be salvaged and used to ease critical shortages, improve surgical care and boost public health in developing countries.

A report on the research, published online Oct. 16 in the World Journal of Surgery, highlights not only an opportunity for U.S. hospitals to help relieve the global burden of surgically treatable diseases, but also a means of reducing the cost and environmental impact of medical waste disposal at home.

The fact of surgical supply waste is nothing new, the researchers note, but say their investigation may be one of the first systematic attempts to measure the national extent of the problem, the potential cost savings and the impact on patients' lives. While several organizations run donation programs for leftover operating room materials, such efforts would be far more successful if they were made standard protocol across all major surgical centers, the authors say.

"Perfectly good, entirely sterile and, above all, much-needed surgical supplies are routinely discarded in American operating rooms," says lead investigator Richard Redett, M.D., a pediatric plastic and reconstructive surgeon at the Johns Hopkins Children's Center. "We hope the results of our study will be a wakeup call for hospitals and surgeons across the country to rectify this wasteful practice by developing systems that collect and ship unused materials to places that desperately need them."

The staggering waste of surgical supplies, the researchers say, is rooted in the common practice of bundling surgical materials in ways that streamline operating room readiness and efficiency, but once opened, everything in the bundle that is unused is thrown away.

"Such programs are acutely needed not only to help address serious needs in resource poor-settings but also to minimize the significant environmental burden at home institutions," says study co-author Eric Wan, M.D., a recent graduate of the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine currently doing postdoctoral training at the National Institutes of Health. "This really is a win-win situation."

The investigators based their estimates on an existing program that recovers and delivers unused surgical supplies from The Johns Hopkins Hospital to two surgical centers in Ecuador. The authors tracked 19 high-demand surgical items donated to the Ecuadorian hospitals over three years, then extrapolated the amount and value of the donations to 232 U.S. surgical centers with caseloads similar to that of The Johns Hopkins Hospital. The results showed that if the 232 American hospitals saved and donated unused surgical supplies, they would generate 2 million pounds of materials worth at least $15 million over a single year. Going a step further, the researchers tracked outcomes among 33 Ecuadorian patients whose surgeries were made possible as a result of the donations. Their analysis showed that donated surgical supplies prevented, on average, eight years of disability per patient.

In the study, materials topping the 19-item surgical supplies list included gauze, disposable syringes, sutures and surgical towels. However, the investigators say, it is important to tailor shipping to the specific needs of each hospital. Matching of donor leftovers to recipient need, they say, will prevent unnecessary shipping costs and avoid creating medical waste locally. In addition, the receiving hospital must have a demonstrated capability and the equipment to clean and sterilize the shipped materials before use in the operating room.

"Saving and shipping these materials is truly a low-hanging fruit enterprise, a simple strategy that could have a dramatic impact on surgical outcomes and public health in resource-poor settings and truly change people's lives," says Redett, who has been running the Johns Hopkins donation program since 2003.

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Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Johns Hopkins Medicine. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

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Journal Reference:

1. Eric L. Wan, Li Xie, Miceile Barrett, Pablo A. Baltodano, Andres F. Rivadeneira, Jonathan Noboa, Maya Silver, Richard Zhou, Suzy Cho, Tammie Tam, Alp Yurter, Carol Gentry, Jorge Palacios, Gedge D. Rosson, Richard J. Redett. Global Public Health Impact of Recovered Supplies from Operating Rooms: A Critical Analysis with National Implications. World Journal of Surgery, 2014; DOI: 10.1007/s00268-014-2834-2

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Using microscopic bugs to save the bees

Treating Foulbrood is complicated because the disease can evolve to resist antibiotics and other chemical treatments. Losing entire hives not only disrupts the honey industry, but reduces the number of bees for pollinating plants.

Now an undergraduate student at BYU, funded by ORCA grants, has produced a natural way to eliminate the scourge, and it's working: Using tiny killer bugs known as phages to protect baby bees from infection.

"Phages are the most abundant life form on the planet and each phage has a unique bacteria that it will attack," said Sandra Burnett, BYU professor of microbiology and molecular biology. "This makes phage an ideal treatment for bacterial disease because it can target specific bacteria while leaving all other cells alone."

Although phages are plentiful in nature, finding the perfect phage for the job takes a lot of hunting. That's where student Bryan Merrill comes in.

Merrill has been researching ways to treat American Foulbrood since joining a "Phage Hunters" class his freshman year at BYU. Merrill loved the class, which introduced him to the process of phage identification, and so he approached Burnett with hopes of researching treatment for the disease under her tutelage.

"This bacteria has been a problem in honeybees for a long time," Merrill said. "It infects the larva when they're teeny tiny. Even a few spores will infect and they'll start eating the larva from the inside out. It doesn't hurt the adult bees, but all of the sudden the bees can't replenish the population and the hive just collapses."

When hives are infected, beekeepers generally treat their hives with antibiotics. However, this is usually only a temporary solution. If the bacteria returns, it will most likely develop to be resistant to the antibiotics. From there, bee owners have the option to burn the hive or try phage treatment.

"Phage is a great alternative to antibiotics, and it's a natural alternative because phages exist in nature on their own," Burnett said. "And just the nature of a phage itself is that it's self-replicating at the expense of the bacteria. It multiplies itself so there are more of them to hunt down the bacteria. Then as soon as the host is gone, the phage just disappears."

Once they identify the perfect phage, Burnett, Merrill and other students replicate it in the lab so it can be applied to the hive with a sugar-water solution. Like a virus, the phage get to work infecting the harmful bacteria until it is gone.

After a lot of gene sequencing and analyzing, Merrill has identified five phage candidates for honeybee treatment, cleverly named after former BYU basketball stars (Abouo, Davies, Emery, Jimmer1 & Jimmer2). His findings appear in a recent issue of high ranking biotechnology journal BMC Genomics.

Merrill has received two ORCA grants to fund his research over the years and has raised several successful beehives for himself.

Reducing population is no environmental 'quick fix'

 

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New multi-scenario modelling of world human population has concluded that even stringent fertility restrictions or a catastrophic mass mortality would not bring about large enough change this century to solve issues of global sustainability.

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, ecologists Professor Corey Bradshaw and Professor Barry Brook from the University of Adelaide's Environment Institute say that the "virtually locked-in" population growth means the world must focus on policies and technologies that reverse rising consumption of natural resources and enhance recycling, for more immediate sustainability gains.

Fertility reduction efforts, however, through increased family-planning assistance and education, should still be pursued, as this will lead to hundreds of millions fewer people to feed by mid-century.

"Global population has risen so fast over the past century that roughly 14% of all the human beings that have ever existed are still alive today -- that's a sobering statistic," says Professor Bradshaw, Director of Ecological Modelling in the Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences. "This is considered unsustainable for a range of reasons, not least being able to feed everyone as well as the impact on the climate and environment.

"We examined various scenarios for global human population change to the year 2100 by adjusting fertility and mortality rates to determine the plausible range of population sizes at the end of this century.

"Even a world-wide one-child policy like China's, implemented over the coming century, or catastrophic mortality events like global conflict or a disease pandemic, would still likely result in 5-10 billion people by 2100."

The researchers constructed nine different scenarios for continuing population ranging from "business as usual" through various fertility reductions, to highly unlikely broad-scale catastrophes resulting in billions of deaths.

"We were surprised that a five-year WWIII scenario mimicking the same proportion of people killed in the First and Second World Wars combined, barely registered a blip on the human population trajectory this century," says Professor Barry Brook, Chair of Climate Change at the Environment Institute for this study, and now Professor of Environmental Sustainability at the University of Tasmania.

"Often when I give public lectures about policies to address global change, someone will claim that we are ignoring the 'elephant in the room' of human population size. Yet, as our models show clearly, while there needs to be more policy discussion on this issue, the current inexorable momentum of the global human population precludes any demographic 'quick fixes' to our sustainability problems.

"Our work reveals that effective family planning and reproduction education worldwide have great potential to constrain the size of the human population and alleviate pressure on resource availability over the longer term. Our great-great-great-great grandchildren might ultimately benefit from such planning, but people alive today will not."

"The corollary of these findings is that society's efforts towards sustainability would be directed more productively towards reducing our impact as much as possible through technological and social innovation," says Professor Bradshaw.

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Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of Adelaide. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

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Journal Reference:

1. Corey J. A. Bradshaw And Barry W. Brook. Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems. PNAS, October 2014 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1410465111

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Deepwater Horizon spill: Much of the oil at bottom of the sea

 

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Controlled burning of surface oil slicks during the Deepwater Horizon event.

Due to the environmental disaster's unprecedented scope, assessing the damage caused by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico has been a challenge. One unsolved puzzle is the location of 2 million barrels of submerged oil thought to be trapped in the deep ocean.

UC Santa Barbara's David Valentine and colleagues from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI) and UC Irvine have been able to describe the path the oil followed to create a footprint on the deep ocean floor. The findings appear today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

For this study, the scientists used data from the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The United States government estimates the Macondo well's total discharge -- from the spill in April 2010 until the well was capped that July -- to be 5 million barrels.

By analyzing data from more than 3,000 samples collected at 534 locations over 12 expeditions, they identified a 1,250-square-mile patch of the deep sea floor upon which 2 to 16 percent of the discharged oil was deposited. The fallout of oil to the sea floor created thin deposits most intensive to the southwest of the Macondo well. The oil was most concentrated within the top half inch of the sea floor and was patchy even at the scale of a few feet.

The investigation focused primarily on hopane, a nonreactive hydrocarbon that served as a proxy for the discharged oil. Researchers analyzed the spatial distribution of hopane in the northern Gulf of Mexico and found it was most concentrated in a thin layer at the sea floor within 25 miles of the ruptured well, clearly implicating Deepwater Horizon as the source.

"Based on the evidence, our findings suggest that these deposits come from Macondo oil that was first suspended in the deep ocean and then settled to the sea floor without ever reaching the ocean surface," said Valentine, a professor of earth science and biology at UCSB. "The pattern is like a shadow of the tiny oil droplets that were initially trapped at ocean depths around 3,500 feet and pushed around by the deep currents. Some combination of chemistry, biology and physics ultimately caused those droplets to rain down another 1,000 feet to rest on the sea floor."

Valentine and his colleagues were able to identify hotspots of oil fallout in close proximity to damaged deep-sea corals. According to the researchers, this data supports the previously disputed finding that these corals were damaged by the Deepwater Horizon spill.

"The evidence is becoming clear that oily particles were raining down around these deep sea corals, which provides a compelling explanation for the injury they suffered," said Valentine. "The pattern of contamination we observe is fully consistent with the Deepwater Horizon event but not with natural seeps -- the suggested alternative."

While the study examined a specified area, the scientists argue that the observed oil represents a minimum value. They purport that oil deposition likely occurred outside the study area but so far has largely evaded detection because of its patchiness.

"This analysis provides us with, for the first time, some closure on the question 'Where did the oil go and how?' " said Don Rice, program director in the National Science Foundation's Division of Ocean Sciences. "It also alerts us that this knowledge remains largely provisional until we can fully account for the remaining 70 percent."

"These findings should be useful for assessing the damage caused by the Deepwater Horizon spill as well as planning future studies to further define the extent and nature of the contamination," Valentine concluded. "Our work can also help to assess the fate of reactive hydrocarbons, test models of oil's behavior in the ocean and plan for future spills."

Co-authors are G. Burch Fisher and Sarah C. Bagby, postdoctoral researchers in the Valentine Lab at UCSB; Robert K. Nelson, Christopher M. Reddy and Sean P. Sylva of WHOI; and Mary A. Woo of UC Irvine. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation.